Our correspondent was inspired by one of Hong Kong`s most knowledgeable handicappers to looks at Sha Tin`s race card from the a statistical perspective to pick winners.
Sha Tin races on Saturday 8th June, 2019
Photos by LeeMingDonald
Alan Aitken, @chapeauxx who is one of the most knowledgeable handicappers in Hong Kong displayed the following graphic in the latest episode of The Winning Factor. Alan tipped Shining Ace in the fifth race based on the fact that he was a last start winner and that his trainer John Size has shown that he wins at a strike rate 28.1% with his last start winners.
Our correspondent was inspired to looks at the entire race card from the a very similar statistical perspective to pick winners when racing returns to Sha Tin in Hong Kong. The table below shows the ten last start winners that race on Saturday and compares their trainer`s overall win percentage this season with the win percentage for last start winners this season.
In the fourth race, trainer Michael Chang saddles Surewin and has an overall 4.6% strike rate while looking at all 330 horses he has saddled this season. However, when we only look at Michael Chang`s last start winners, his win percentage climbs to an astronomic 25% this season. When we compare the overall 4.6% strike rate with the 25% win rate for last start winners, we get an efficiency factor of 5.4. This would mean that Michael Chang saddles nearly five and a half times more winners when we look at his last start winners.
The factor that is common between Richcity Fortune, Thanks Forever, Surewin, Shining Ace, Guy Dragon, Gracious Ryder, and Golden Sixty when races return to Sha Tin in Hong Kong on Saturday June 8th, 2019 card is that these seven are all last start winners and their trainers have an Efficiency Factor of greater than 1 (which would mean that these trainers saddle more winners from among their last start winners when compared to their overall strike rate).
Our correspondent recommends the following four races as betting propositions.
Third Race - # 2) Thanks Forever saddled by John Size (Efficiency Factor of 2.9) pulverized the opposition (including the promising Voyage Warrior) when he came from nearly a one year layoff and will be hard to beat. He will be at short odds, but could be combined with Multimillion in a Quinella for some value.
Fifth Race - # 5) Shining Ace is a last start winner saddled by John Size (Efficiency Factor of 2.4) and will try and make it a start to finish affair. With Bingo being scratched, his lone opponent for the lead will be Fantastic Fabio. Shining Ace will try and steal a march over Better Choice, What a Legend, and Sleep Education who shape as the others who are in it with a chance.
Seventh Race - # 6 Guy Dragon, saddled by trainer Chris So (Efficiency Factor of 2.3), gained more than four lengths when he beat Band of Brothers who franked the form by winning subsequently. Lady First and Winston`s Lad are his two main rivals and could be combined with Guy Dragon in a Quinella for some value.
Ninth Race - # 11 Beauty Energy ran a good fourth despite fighting for his head early on and not settling well. He had gained more than four lengths while clocking a fast sectional for the final 400 meters. Mongolian Legend, Comfort Life, and Circuit Hassler will make this race competitive.
Here are the selections for the card
These selections are based on the Race Card available at the time of writing and do not factor in any standby horses that are promoted. While considering the tips above, please pay attention to the names of the horses – the number of a horse that is withdrawn will be assigned to the promoted standby horse.