In my book 'Six Words' I wrote something about the 'Anthropic Principle' which says that the Mathematical constants of nature must be absolutely fine-tuned within an extremely narrow range, to enable life and consciousness to emerge and then understand the universe.

In the same way Mathematical constants have to be perfect for running a business or an industry.

The same goes for horse racing …The mathematical ratios have to be perfect for horse racing to be a successful industry, that provides entertainment to the racing public, a reasonable profit/income/incentives etc to those in business, or in employment such as the Turf clubs, The Breeders, the race horse owners, the trainers, the jockeys, the betting agencies/networks etc etc.

I am afraid to point out that the Mathematical constants currently prevailing in the Indian racing industry are not working well for owners, breeders and punters. These ratios are nowhere near perfect at any of the Turf Clubs in India. Unless there is a sea change in these ratios, the racing industry may not survive in India.

What exactly are these ratios and what should be their optimum values, so that it is attractive for all stake holders connected with the Horse racing industry.

Here in this article, I will discuss just four such ratios which are of significance,

1. Ratio ( R1) of The Horse Owner's Average Likely Earnings to the Likely Total Cost incurred by the Owner including cost of maintenance etc.

Let us try to analyze this and arrive at what should be the optimum value.

The analysis is based on certain assumptions which are in turn based on my understanding of the subject, which is in turn based on my experience as a horse owner as well as based on information to the extent available in the Stud Book Department.



a) Consider that an average thoroughbred racehorse purchased as a two-year-old in the month of February 2026, starts racing in November 2026 and races for a period of two and a half years, retiring at age 5 in the month of April.

b) Consider that the horse runs about eight races per year ie a total of 20 races during his or her racing career.

c) Consider that the average horse attains a maximum Time Form rating of about 60 and runs with an Average Time Form rating of about 45, thus considering that a class Three Handicap race as of an average category.

d) Consider the Cost of Purchase of such an average racehorse as that which works well for the breeders. I assume Rs 18 Lakhs as something that should work well for the breeders.

e) From February 2026 to April 2029 the total expenditure is likely to be as follows:

1) For first 8 months, the horse will not be racing and the maintenance cost is likely to be Rs 36000 x 8 = Rs 2,88,000

2) For the next 2.5 years (30 months), the average maintenance cost including entry fees, transportation, medical fees etc is likely to be about Rs 45000 per month, hence cost for 2.5 years is expected to be about Rs 45000 x 30 = Rs 13,50,000

3) Total maintenance cost = Rs 16,38, 000

f) Total cost to the owner including cost of purchase = Rs 34,38,000

g) Total likely earnings are worked out as follows:

1) Based on data available ( Stud Book), the average annual earning of a race horse in the year 2022 was about Rs 4,03,000.

2) Assuming about 8 % increase per year, the likely average earnings in the year 2027 may be 1.08^5*4.03 = 5.92 Lakhs

3) Total likely earnings = Rs 5,92,000 X 2.5 = Rs 14,80,000



Hence R1 = 1480000/3438000 = 0.43

Consider that the owner is not actually looking for profit, that he looks for entertainment, as well as to satisfy his gambling instincts. He should be satisfied if he just about breaks even.

Hence the Required Ratio 'R1' should at least equal to ONE.

(to be continued in Part II)