This year’s Indian Derby presents a rare four-way puzzle, with Baychimo, Fynbos, Zacharias and Sovereign King all arriving with form and pedigree to command serious respect. Among them, Baychimo holds a narrow but logical edge. While the final 2400-metre test still awaits, his ability to overcome adversity and his effortless, record-breaking Ruia Cup performance strongly suggest he is ready for the ultimate examination.

Baychimo, by French Navy, carries the stamp of the Shamardal line, speed with substance and efficiency. His Guineas victory from an impossible position and his Ruia Cup demolition over 2000 metres in course-record time suggest a colt whose cruising speed is his oxygen. With champion jockey Suraj Narredu now in the saddle, Baychimo looks the sort who can stretch his pedigree rather than be trapped by it. The extra 400 metres is an examination, but not an ambush.

Fynbos, the Oaks-winning filly by Kinda Ka, brings a different genetic story. Her sire line leans toward milers and intermediate performers, horses who enjoy rhythm and acceleration more than prolonged attrition. Her Oaks success over 2400 metres confirms she stays the trip, but it came under conditions that allowed her to relax fully before quickening decisively. That pedigree, combined with that race shape, suggests her Derby challenge will hinge not on distance alone, but on whether she can finish after being engaged far earlier than she prefers. With Tom Marquand aboard, timing becomes her greatest ally.

Zacharias, by Western Aristocrat, sits between theory and attrition. The Mr Greeley influence in his sire line points to speed and competitiveness, but there is sufficient depth, particularly through the female line, to support a grinding staying profile. His Pune Derby victory advertised stamina rather than sparkle, and with the upwardly mobile Vivek taking over, his task is uncomplicated and exacting. If the Derby turns into a test of who can keep galloping when others shorten stride, Zacharias is built for such an eventuality.

Then there is Sovereign King, by Top Class, whose pedigree suggests class first, stamina second. These bloodlines typically excel between a mile and ten furlongs, with staying power drawn as much from constitution as inheritance. What Sovereign King adds is form that refuses to be dismissed. Beaten a whisker by Baychimo in the Guineas, he had earlier won the Gr 1 Colts Championship Stakes at Bangalore, confirming his ability is not situational. His smooth mock race over 2000 metres hints at readiness without revelation, and Derbies are often won by horses who save their best answer for the final question.

A comparative dosage reading places Sovereign King among the strongest stayers on pedigree, firmly rooted in classic-distance stamina. Kavya sits in the same bracket, perhaps even stronger on paper, bred to stay and keep finding over a searching trip. Baychimo remains just within the acceptable range, suggesting he can see out the distance through class and efficiency rather than abundant staying power. Zacharias fits between Baychimo and the true stayers, shaped to handle the trip without being a natural grinder. Fynbos, by contrast, is more speed-oriented and may feel the strain if the race becomes a severe mile-and-a-half test.

This Derby may ultimately be decided by how honestly it is run. A strong but measured pace plays to Baychimo’s carried speed. A lull could allow Fynbos to deploy her acceleration with precision. An attritional gallop brings Zacharias firmly into the reckoning. Any miscalculation, any hesitation, and Sovereign King stands ready to capitalise, with Kavya also looming in the background.

Pedigree offers tendencies, not verdicts. The Indian Derby, as ever, will ask each contender to go beyond what bloodlines promise. The one who does so most convincingly will not only win the race, but reaffirm why uncertainty remains the Derby’s most faithful companion.