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Four bets appeal on 2019 FWD Champions Day

By: Our Correspondent   April 27 , 2019
   

While there will be a lot of excitement and media coverage of the three main races (The Chairman`s Sprint Prize, The FWD Champions Mile and The FWD QEII Cup) on 2019 FWD Champions day to be held on Sunday (April 28), four races on the undercard appeal most to our Hong Kong Editor from a betting perspective.

Photos by LeeMingDonald

First Race -- # 6) Victory Power`s odds had dropped sharply in his last two starts. In his last run this 13-start maiden had hit the front from a wide draw but was just beaten. Neil Callan who has had a lean patch (74 rides since he last rodea winner Jolly Convergence on 13th March at Happy Valley)will keep the ride on Victory Power. Neil is a far more competent jockey than his current win percentage (3.5%) indicates. He rides his mounts out vigorously and without mistakes and has a live chance on getting back to the winner`s circle at Sha Tin (which will be his first time since 9th December last year). Victory Power should be able to get the better of either Happy Alumni or Big Fortune.



Fifth Race -- # 8) Spendour and Gold was an impressive winner in his last start where he came from 5.5 lengths behind to win by 3 lengths over 1600 metres. Out of the ten horses that have finished behind him in that race and have subsequently run, three have won (CHAPARRAL STAR, COOLCELEB, and DASHING DART) and two have finished second (CIRCUIT THREE, MANAGEMENT STAR) franking that race as a Key Race. We like Spendor and Gold as a betting proposition and he could also be combined with CIRCUIT HASSLER for a Quinella.



Ninth Race -- # 9) Win Win won impressively in Class 4 and now finds himself carrying 14 pounds less in Class 3. Win Win is trained by Benno Yung and will be ridden by jockey Keith Yeung. The pair have combined successfully this season for 8 wins from 93 attempts. Win Win for the Yung-Yeung team should be able to have the measure of the others (the best of the lot seem to be closely handicapped and are UNCLE STEVE, WORLD FAMOUS, HARMONY HERO, and CRAIG`S STAR).



Play of the Day - Second Race - Quinella with # 13 GOLDEN SIXTYand # 10 SMART LEADER. Golden Sixty won his maiden start impressively and had plenty in hand. The 10-point jump in rating which the HKJC handicapper assigned him seems like a penalty. Data shows that out of the 48 horses that were assigned 10 points or more this 2018-2019 season, 24 (or 50%) have won. Given that the ROI on flat bets on these 48 `big rating jumpers` is just marginally profitable (ROI +1.25%), we suggest combining Golden Sixty with Smart Leader in a Quinella.

 
 
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