We will be watching Super Lucky and Xiang Bai Qi with interest tomorrow. Caspar Fownes has sharply dropped Super Lucky down in trip in the first race and David Ferraris has added a ring bit to Xiang Bai Qi for the first time in the third race. We like both Super Lucky and Xiang Bai Qi as their trainers have made some changes for these horses.
Photos by LeeMingDonald @LeeMingDonald
Trainers prepare horses for races and own the responsibility for exercising them, determining spelling periods, and figuring out optimal equipment. They also interact with vets to determine treatment plans, determine which races (in terms of distance, class, frequency) the horse should be entered in, and collaborate with owners to determine which jockey will give it the best chance of winning. For these efforts, 9.2% of the stake money won by a horse goes to the Trainer (an additional 10.8% is shared by the Assistant trainer and stable staff of the horse). Last year`s champion trainer John Size`s horses earned more than HKD 176 Million (which would net the trainer more than HKD 16 Million for the season).
There are three races that seem appealing from a betting perspective.
First Race - # 2) When Super Lucky won over 1200 meters earlier this season, his style of running indicated that he would relish longer. Super Lucky earned an impressive speed rating over 1650 meters in his last start behind Alpha Hedge. His trainer, the astute Caspar Fownes, could have opted to run Super Lucky in the 1200-meter Class 4 available on Wednesday or either one of the two Class 4 1650 races, but he chose to enter Super Lucky in this 1000-meter race. This is a gutsy move by Caspar as data from the 2015-16 season till date shows that only 1 horse every season (out of the 88 that have attempted this over the past four seasons) has been able to win after dropping to 1000 meters from a mile or longer effort.The two-month layoff has freshened Super Lucky as evidenced by his gallop last Thursday where he seemed to be moving better than his stablemate Fearless Fire (who is in Class 3). Super Lucky is tipped to win at fair to long odds from Hong Kong Win and Everbrave.
Second Race - # 6) This is Class seems to be in great form recently. He followed his impressive win over 1200 meters at Happy Valley with a close second in his last start behind Sunny Dragon. He seems to be slightly better off at the scales than Bullish Brother who has run behind This is Class in his last two races. Bullish Brother will hit the front along with last start winner Loriz and these two should set up a good pace for This is Class who likes coming from off the pace.
Third Race - # 6) Xiang Bai Qi had finished down the field in his only run at Happy Valley earlier this season. Since then, this David Ferraris trained gelding has been campaigned exclusively at Sha Tin. Xiang Bai Qi will run a good race at Happy Valley in this Class 3 race.
In his last run, Xiang Bai Xi`s rider, Martin Harley had reported that Xiang Bai Qi had commenced to hang in after making the turn near the 800 Metres and had proved difficult to ride. Trainer David Ferraris has added a ring bit (shown below) to Xiang Bai Qi for the first time and this should allow Xiang Bai Qi to run better and get the measure of Witness and the consistent Fearless Fire.
We fancy Xiang Bai Qi based on his last start speed rating and trust that David Ferraris`s equipment change decision will help Xiang Bai Qi improve and run a winning race.
Here are the selections for the card